2020-08-14

I consider Ray Kurzweil a very close friend and a very smart person. Ray is a brilliant technologist, futurist, and a director of engineering at Google focused on AI and language processing. He has also made more correct (and documented) technology predictions about the future than anyone: As reported, “of the 147 predictions that Kurzweil has made …

He said he’s made 147 predictions in the age of machines, and according to him, “86% were correct to the year.” 2020-06-14 · In 1999, Ray Kurzweil made predictions about what the world would be like 20 years in the future. Last month the community blog LessWrong took a look at how accurate Kurzweil's predictions turned out to be : This was a follow up to a previous assessment about his predictions about 2009 , which showed a mixed bag, roughly evenly divided between right and wrong, which I'd found pretty good for Kurzweil himself has defended the accuracy of his predictions, though I’m unsure if he agrees with the content of the Wikipedia page in question. Personally, I’m a huge fan of Kurzweil and want to believe his predictions, but am always mindful of Richard Feynman’s admonition that “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” Also in 1999, Kurzweil foresaw that “individuals primarily use portable computers” by 2009. In 2000, Kurzweil said that by 2010, “[Computers] will tap into the worldwide mesh of high-speed communications and computational resources.” [2] Many of Kurzweil’s technology predictions didn’t come to pass, but he has a pretty good track Kurzweil proves surprisingly prescient, but the specific technologies he’s auguring (wearable computers, nanotechnology, virtual reality, etc.) don’t always come to pass. Still, an accuracy of ~ 1 in 3 is surprisingly good, in particular if one considers that these predictions were made 20 years in advance (!). Since Kurzweil had used it or something similar to extrapolate his numbers this seems to bring into question the whole premise of the singularity prediction. 1024core on Jan 2, 2019 Not that I'm much into "predictions", but for $4000 you can get a lot of GPU cards (assuming you can squeeze them all into a box, with the necessary power and connections).

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In the past 20 years or so, extreme poverty has fallen by some 50% globally. But when people are surveyed and asked to guess the decline in poverty rates, only around 1% of people get it right. When the topic of Kurzweil's predictions for 2019 came up 2 years ago (!), I gave him a ~20% hit rate [1]. However, at the time, I didn't realize that he was writing a sequence of 10-year predictions, so I didn't look at the corresponding predictions for 2009 or 2029. 2020-06-14 In-text citations: These come from “2030–Ray Kurzweil’s Predictions or Bill Joy’s Fears.” Works Cited page: Only one entry on the Works Cited page, for “2030—Ray Kurzweil’s Predictions or Bill Joy’s Fears.” 6. Edit/proofread.

Ray Kurzweil recently announced his year-by-year predictions of the future. Here are just a few samples (full list here): 2020 – Personal computers reach a computing power comparable to the human brain.

Ray Kurzweil is one of the world's leading inventors, thinkers and futurists, with a thirty-year track record of accurate predictions. Called the restless genius by The Wall Street Journal and the ultimate thinking machine by Forbes magazine, Kurzweil was selected as one of the top entrepreneurs by Inc. Magazine, which described him as the rightful heir to Thomas Edison.

There’s reason to believe Ray when he says the future will be better than you think. Ray is renowned for his predictions on technological and social advancement. He said he’s made 147 predictions in the age of machines, and according to him, “86% were correct to the year.” Kurzweil is known for making predictions, which are right about 86% of the time. Here are some of his most promising (and terrifying) visions of the 2020s and beyond.

Kurzweil is known for making predictions, which are right about 86% of the time. Here are some of his most promising (and terrifying) visions of the 2020s and beyond. By the 2030s, 'nanobots' will plug our brains straight into the cloud. 1 / 7

He s a computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He s the author of 5 bestsellers and holds a variety of awards and honors. Kurzweil, a Director of Engineering at Google, should be taken seriously. He boasts a 30-year track record of accurate predictions and many key patents. That said, many predictions fail because the prophet overlooks the fact that the changes required are of nature, not of scale.

Earlier this week, at the SXSW Conference in Austin, Texas, Kurzweil made yet another prediction: the technological singularity will happen sometime in the next 12 years, Joinfo.com reports with reference to Futurism. “By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence,” Kurzweil said in an interview with SXSW. (See Kurzweil’s biography and CV on his website, kurzweilai.net.) Ray Kurzweil’s Predictions. Given his past success, Kurzweil’s wild predictions about the future seem feasible. It is very hard to predict the future, but he points out that technology is actually quite predictable, since it has been progressing at a steady exponential rate.
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The above represent only a few of the predictions Ray has made. While he hasn’t been precisely right, to the exact year, his track record is stunningly good. Here are some of my favorite of Ray’s predictions for the next 25+ years. If you are an entrepreneur, you need to be thinking about these. Ray Kurzweil was 35 when he was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

In 2010, he listed all the 147 predictions he had made in his various books.
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Feb 4, 2016 - Did you know you could actually sleep comfortably and still have your curly hair intact the next morning? The answer you want is just here.

That said, many predictions fail because the prophet overlooks the fact that the changes required are of nature, not of scale.